Breaking: The market is starting to bet on a FED rate hike in October! They just raised rates, and now the market is already trading on the next hike. The latest Kalshi prediction market shows: 美国 56% chance of another 25 bps hike in October. And in just one month, the probability has surged rapidly. The 56% shown in the chart reflects the probability priced in by the Kalshi market, not a decision already made by the FED. A recent Reuters report also indicates that CME markets are pricing in about a 50% chance of another hike in October, and Goldman Sachs currently expects a potential 25 bps hike next month. What’s even more important— The FED just raised rates by 25 bps in September to 3.75%–4.00%, and the latest policy projections show that most officials believe at least one more hike may be needed this year. In other words, the market’s original expectations of: Rate cuts → Liquidity returns → Risk-on Are now being repriced as: Rate hikes → More hikes → Higher for Longer For BTC, U.S. stocks, and gold, the real question is no longer “Will there be a hike in September?” but rather: Could this turn into another continuous rate hike cycle? The next FOMC meeting is on October 27–28. If inflation heats up again and economic data remains strong, the market’s pricing for an October hike could continue to shift. 56% is no longer just a tail risk. Every CPI, PCE, and jobs report from now on could directly change the game.