Max Trades|9月 20, 2026 15:05
BTC
This graphic shows very clearly how Bitcoin’s cycles have evolved over time.
Until now, the duration of each bull and bear market has remained relatively consistent, while diminishing returns have already been clearly visible from cycle to cycle.
However, if the bottom is already in like I believe it is, something much more significant may have changed this time around.
Not only would this bear market have seen a substantially smaller drawdown than the previous ones, but it would also have been much shorter.
Previous bear markets lasted roughly a year, while this one would have ended after only around 270 days.
What makes this especially interesting is that both the duration and the drawdown declined by roughly 26% compared to the previous bear market.
That would be one of the clearest signs yet that Bitcoin’s cycle structure itself may have started to change.
If this trend continues, future cycles could become shorter while both upside returns and downside drawdowns continue to diminish.
At that point, the traditional 4-year cycle framework would become increasingly difficult to rely on, and traders would have to adapt much faster to changing market phases.
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