Yigol
Yigol|Sep 20, 2026 02:44
bitcoin:native Keep an eye on two numbers tomorrow: BTC 80K, US Treasury 5%. BTC climbed back above 80K on Friday, with ETF single-day net inflows ranging from approximately $325M to $433M depending on the source. However, the weekly net inflow was only slightly positive, indicating that institutional funds are returning, but it’s not a full-on buying spree yet. More importantly, during the earlier BTC rally, OI (open interest) didn’t expand significantly, which actually suggests this phase was more about spot buying + short covering, rather than aggressive high-leverage pushes. On Friday, the Nasdaq was up +0.4% and the S&P 500 was up +0.2%, but the 10Y US Treasury yield touched 5% again. Stocks like Micron and SK Hynix, which are tied to AI storage, are still performing well, showing that industry capital hasn’t exited. What’s really weighing on valuations is the interest rate. So for Monday: If BTC holds 80K, I’m still looking at 82K–83K; if it drops back to 78K, I’ll reduce positions. For US stocks, it’s the opposite—if the 10Y yield pulls back to around 4.9%, I’ll continue with AI plays; if it stabilizes above 5%, even the best tech stocks are a no-go for now.
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