The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|Sep 19, 2026 21:53
Housing market sentiment is at crisis levels: The NAHB Housing Market Index fell -3 points in September, to 32, matching its lowest levels recorded since the December 2022 low. This index has now remained below 50 for 29 consecutive months, indicating that more builders see conditions as poor than good, and below 40 for 17 straight months, the longest such streak since 2012. The deterioration was broad-based, with current sales falling -4 points, to 35, while future sales expectations dropped -4 points, to 37, their lowest since early 2023. Furthermore, 38% of builders reduced prices this month, up from 35% in August, while the average price cut remained at -6% for the 6th consecutive month. Sales incentives are also becoming more common, rising to 66% of builders from 63% in the prior month. This comes as elevated borrowing costs, higher material costs, rising gas and diesel prices, and persistent labor shortages weigh on the market. The US housing market slowdown is deepening.
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