Pai 🌲
Pai 🌲|Sep 19, 2026 14:49
The real winner this week that no one’s talking about. When the rate hike landed, everyone was watching the banks and Nasdaq. Banks were supposed to benefit from the interest margin, but $XLF didn’t move. Nasdaq was supposed to take a hit, but semiconductors bounced back 2.2%. A full green candle on Friday. During Friday’s session, I was still stubborn, saying money wouldn’t flow back into U.S. stocks. By the close, $SMH slapped me in the face. The money came back, but only to growth stocks. Banks didn’t get a piece of it. This isn’t complicated—rate hikes shut the door on arbitrage opportunities. Money was stuck for a week and then all poured into the AI basket. If it could squeeze in, it rallied. If it couldn’t, like banks, it just sat there waiting. I’m betting banks still won’t outperform semiconductors next week. After this week, the key is to watch where the money flows. I’m still holding my short positions on banks.
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