Raoul Pal
Raoul Pal|Sep 18, 2026 19:30
The US owes more than its whole economy produces in a year. So does nearly every major country. And the interest bill is in the trillions. For fifteen years the debt has been managed by debasing the currency around 8% a year, and rolling it forward. That's the Everything Code... it's how every major economy has been run since 2008, whether they say so or not. But that's the pattern, not the ending. Debt as a share of GDP goes to zero the moment the economy grows faster than the debt does. And that's what's coming. Once AI drives productivity and the robots and agents come into the workforce, the debt will shrink as a percentage of the economy. It's also exactly how the US dealt with a debt bigger than its whole economy in the 1940s and 1950s. I wrote up the whole case study this week. I'll drop the link below.
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