Is BTC about to return to a bear market if interest rate hikes are initiated? In 2022, there was an increase of 425 basis points, with four consecutive periods of 75 basis points from June to November; From $41000 at the time of the first interest rate hike to $15800, down 65% for the whole year; In 2023, there will be four 25 basis point interest rate hikes, with July being the last one. BTC will rise from $16500 to $42000 throughout the year; From December 2015 to December 2017, BTC increased from $454 to $16515 by adding 5 times, each time by 25 basis points. From the examples above, it can be seen that raising interest rates alone does not necessarily indicate anything, and what truly matters are the variables of "tightening pace" and "BTC's own position". The reason why it can rise in 2023 is that the marginal direction is becoming loose. Inflation has fallen, and the magnitude of a single interest rate hike has decreased from 75% to 25%; The market trading is' almost finished '. At the same time, BTC has just completed a thorough round of turnover, reset its chip structure, and its price is in the undervalued zone. The current position of BTC itself is extremely similar to that of 2023. The so-called self position certainly does not refer to absolute price, but rather to the chip structure. From PSIP data, it can be seen that just like in early 2023, it has just undergone a round of extreme stress testing from 100% to below 50%. At the bottom of the six-month period, there were multiple panic surrenders and ample turnover. So, the relative position of the chip structure is definitely not the same as the first interest rate hike in March 2022. So the only remaining variable is the pace of subsequent interest rate hikes, including frequency and magnitude. If it is always 25 basis points and there is no expectation of entering the interest rate hike cycle again, I personally believe that BTC will not "return to the bear market", at most it will only slow down the "pace of the cycle". However, this may not necessarily be a bad thing. Sometimes, slow is fast.