《Today's Key Financial Events｜September 18》 ---- Is a rate hike by the Bank of Japan a high-probability event? What’s the impact on US stocks and $BTC? (1) **Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision** The market expects a 25 basis point hike, marking the most aggressive rate hike pace since 1990. Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference afterward. Yen carry trade unwinding could add extra selling pressure on global risk assets. (2) **US August Industrial Production MoM + Conference Board Leading Index** To be released tonight—watch to see if economic data continues to show resilience. (3) **US Stocks Rebounded Yesterday** The S&P 500 rose 1.1%, Nasdaq gained 1.7%, and chip stocks surged 3.1%. Oil prices fell for the second consecutive day, with Brent closing below $105, easing pressure on bond yields. (4) **Crypto Market** US Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 4,300 $BTC yesterday, with a 7-day cumulative outflow of 12,061 $BTC. Meanwhile, $UNI defied the trend, surging over 15%. **Xiaolong’s Perspective:** Today marks the conclusion of this week’s Super Central Bank Week. If the Bank of Japan confirms a rate hike, expectations of global liquidity tightening will further strengthen, and yen carry trade unwinding could spill over to risk assets. However, the core issue for $BTC right now isn’t Japan—it’s about its own volume and capital flows: perpetual markets are bottom-fishing, but spot buying hasn’t caught up. Even if the Bank of Japan hikes rates, the impact on Bitcoin’s price will likely be minimal—it’s already priced in! The impact on US stocks might be more significant. $BTC’s 76K remains a short-term pivot point, with a high probability of a pullback ahead. This would be a healthy correction during the early stages of a bull market!