小龙先生|Sep 17, 2026 12:10
Three dimensional Integrated Trading System | BTC Evening Market Analysis (2/3): On chain Data - ETF institutions are like the wall grass stepping on horses, absolutely right!
After the implementation of FOMC, the on chain data showed a differentiation of "short-term surrender and medium-term structural integrity".
Negative sentiment has accelerated ETF outflows, resulting in two consecutive days of net outflows.
On September 16th, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of $296 million, marking the second consecutive day of outflow, with a net outflow of $450 million yesterday.
Compared to the peak of nearly 1 billion yuan inflow in early September, ETF institutional buying has clearly declined. The wall grass sways left and right, it is not the backbone of the market at all!
Short term holders surrender and sell.
After the CLARITY Act was rejected, the number of BTC transferred by short-term holders to the exchange surged from about 19400 to 33100, with 23200 in a floating loss state, making it the largest stop loss selling of the month.
Kraken has received over 6000 coins (2-3 times the normal level), while Binance has received over 10000 coins.
However, the giant whale has not yet systematically sold off.
On September 8th, only 5442 BTC flowed into the top ten exchanges, only 5.1% higher than the 30 day average, still within the normal behavior range of large investors.
The cost line on the chain has fallen below, but there is a signal of acceptance below. At the same time, Binance's stablecoin reserves reached $43.44 billion, and the inflow of TRX chain USDT surged 660% compared to the 30 day benchmark, indicating that purchasing power is concentrating on Binance.
On chain judgment: Short term holders are surrendering, ETFs are withdrawing, but whales are not running, and stablecoins are flowing in. The net flow is dominated by the empty side.
However, the bearish sentiment was priced in advance, and the price did not experience a significant drop, which is quite reassuring.
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