星球日报|Sep 17, 2026 03:42
[The probability of 'The Federal Reserve will cumulatively raise rates by 50 basis points by 2026' on Polymarket rises to 66%, up 21% in 24 hours]
Monitoring by the PPP prediction market tool shows that the probability of 'The Federal Reserve will cumulatively raise rates by 50 basis points by 2026' on Polymarket has risen to 66%, up 21% in the past 24 hours. The probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate hike has risen to 15%, up 7% in 24 hours.
According to the settlement rules, this market settles based on the number of 25 basis point rate hikes implemented by the Federal Reserve by 2026. A single 50 basis point hike counts as 2 hikes, and emergency rate hikes are also included. A single rate hike of 1 to 24 basis points is also counted as 1 hike. The settlement of this market is based on the statements released by the Federal Reserve following the conclusion of FOMC meetings held according to the official 2026 schedule.
The Federal Reserve concluded its monetary policy meeting on September 16, announcing a 25 basis point rate hike, marking the first rate hike by the Fed since July 2023.
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