灯塔说
灯塔说|9月 17, 2026 00:44
As expected, let me express my opinion: Last night, the interest rate hike landed at 25 basis points, which was in line with expectations. The market did not experience significant fluctuations after the announcement, and the expected 79-75K fell ahead of schedule. However, last night, BTC was able to hold on to 75K despite the bullish trend at the Walsh press conference. This indicates that BTC is relatively resistant to decline, but this is short-term. In terms of the future, there will be a 25 basis point interest rate hike in September. Based on current conditions, there will be at least one interest rate hike this year. 16 out of 18 people in the dot matrix chart have given this expectation, and Walsh also stated in his speech that the current US economy is strong, and interest rate hikes will not affect the economy. Inflation will remain too high for too long, and the overall opinion is hawkish. As of October, the probability of interest rate hikes is around 50%. In the current environment, the short-term market trend is more volatile, and bulls need to wait for the next clearer positive direction. If geopolitics ease in late September, oil prices fall, and there is an improvement in October, that would be even better, but there is no such signal yet. The current BTC market is volatile, with 75K holding up. Short term pressure is at 77300 and 78400. We also need to pay more attention to the bond market in the future. If 2Y and 10Y continue to rise, 10Y remains stable at over 5%, and BTC cannot stand steadily at 77K, then we should pay attention to looking down at 75K-73K. On the contrary, if 10Y starts to fall back and is suppressed by less than 5%, BTC price will stabilize above 77K again, and we can continue to see bears squeeze to 78-79K In terms of gold, it is still in a downward adjustment for 4 hours and does not have the ability to bottom out temporarily. Pay attention to the watershed near 4380. Crude oil pays attention to the dynamics of the geopolitical situation. Once there is information of negotiation and reconciliation, it is decisive and empty. No one likes high oil prices. bitcoin:native
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