Is the 10Y Note Yield heading to 6.0%? Historically, the 10Y Note Yield has risen +50 basis points on average in the first 6 months after the Fed began hiking rates, across tightening cycles since 1963. Over the following 12 months, the average increase reached +110 basis points. If this materializes again, the 10Y Note Yield would surpass 6.0% next year for the first time since August 2000. Meanwhile, the most extreme cases saw increases of up to +400 basis points in the 10Y Note Yield over the 12 months following the first hike. On the other hand, some declines of up to -70 basis points were also recorded over the same period. More US Treasury intervention is likely coming.