Analysis: The possibility of the Federal Reserve's' dovish surprise 'is unlikely, with Bitcoin support at $68000

According to BlockBeats, on September 16th, Bitcoin remained below $76000 before the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, approaching its lowest level since August 21st. BTC/USD previously fell to a new low of $74960 this month; After the CLARITY Act failed to receive the 60 votes required for Senate advancement, market attention has shifted to Federal Reserve policy decisions. According to CME FedWatch data, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points to be close to 93%, and the target range for the federal funds rate will rise to 3.75% to 4% after the rate hike. The Kobeissi Letter states that since 2008, when the expectation of interest rate hikes reaches current levels, the Federal Reserve has chosen to raise interest rates; If interest rates remain unchanged this time, it will become the largest dovish surprise at regular policy meetings since 1994. Glassnode indicates that the liquidity of spot order book buying is approaching the current price, with $68000 forming the next order book support, and the comprehensive cost base for short-term holders is around $71300. If the current range is breached and the related buy orders are consumed, the next on chain support may be between $62000 and $65000, corresponding to approximately 9% of the Bitcoin supply at the most recent on chain transfer price.