JPMORGAN MAPS FED DAY: STOCKS COULD SWING 2% JPMorgan says Fed communication could determine whether stocks rally or sell off after today’s widely expected 25bp hike. A standard hike with limited guidance could lift the S&P 500 0.25%–0.75%, while a hike paired with a stronger inflation-fighting signal could drive gains of 0.5%–1%. A surprise hold could send stocks down 1.25%–1.75% as long-term yields rise. The biggest risk is guidance suggesting rates must remain “materially higher” to defeat inflation. JPMorgan estimates that could trigger a 1%–2% S&P 500 decline, potentially threatening the current rally.(彭博社)