比特币橙子Trader
比特币橙子Trader|Sep 16, 2026 02:57
Last night's CLARITY, tonight's FOMC: There's still one final level left in encryption, get through tonight, it's a good thing, do you believe it? Last night, CLARITY failed to cross the Senate threshold of 60 votes, and encryption fell first. Tonight it's the turn of the Federal Reserve. The yield of the US 10-year treasury bond bond once hit 5.04%, a new high since 2007, and the market's pricing for tonight's interest rate hike of 25bp has reached more than 90%. The stock market also couldn't hold on yesterday, with the S&P falling 0.4% and the Nasdaq falling 0.8%. However, the real danger tonight is not the "25bp interest rate hike" itself, because this matter is basically written into the price and the market has expectations in advance. The real determinant of the next market trend is whether the Federal Reserve will continue to hawk - if it only adds 25bp and does not release a continuous signal of interest rate hikes, then the risk asset deleveraging around oil prices, 5% US bonds, and interest rate expectations that has been done in the past few days may come to a temporary end. If it is explicitly implied that further pressure will be added later, that is the second round of pressure. The current interest rate futures are priced at approximately 92% -95% for tonight's interest rate hike.  In addition, CLARITY being stuck in Congress does not mean a shutdown of US cryptocurrency regulation, but rather will shift more attention back to the SEC and CFTC. Two institutions have upgraded Project Crypto to a joint policy action this year and officially promoted regulatory coordination. Now that Congress cannot provide a complete market structure bill, the explanatory power, rule making power, and exemption space in the hands of administrative regulatory agencies become even more important. So let's go through the FOMC tonight and then see how the SEC/CFTC can introduce more favorable policies.
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