The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|Sep 15, 2026 20:02
US long-term unemployment is at crisis levels: The number of Americans unemployed for 27+ weeks surged +155,000 in August, to 1.93 million, the 4th-highest reading since December 2021. As a % of total unemployment, this metric rose +1.5 percentage points last month, to 27.0%, the 3rd-highest since December 2021. Long-term unemployment has now increased for more than 3 years. This figure is now higher than in every recession except the 2008 Financial Crisis and the 2020 Pandemic. By comparison, during the current economic cycle, this percentage bottomed at 17.8% in February 2023. The labor market continues to appear weak beneath the surface.
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