The expectation for a rate hike has already reached 90%, almost a done deal. Stop talking about unrealistic ideas like rate cuts. From Trump’s standpoint, sure, he can’t tolerate rate hikes, but the market will ultimately price this correctly. No matter how much Warsh pretends, it doesn’t change the fact that the current market needs a rate hike. The 10-year Treasury yield breaking 5% is also telling everyone that market risks are too high, and the chances of a recession are too high. Uncontrollable crude oil is flying higher and higher, Trump’s empty rhetoric is no longer of interest to the market, illegal tariffs further limit the Treasury’s options, and the buyback efforts from the old lady (Fed) will also be impacted. The market will continue to question: Is the Fed truly independent? If it becomes a tool for Trump’s manipulation, what will happen to the dollar and dollar assets we hold? In fact, the market is already pricing in this risk. —————————— Let’s talk some real stuff. The rate hike expectation is basically a done deal, but this time the dot plot (might not be released) and subsequent statements become even more important. What truly drives market reactions is: Whether this tightening path is “bounded and credible.” Pulling the Fed’s credibility back from the edge of the cliff is the core of this trade and the key to validating Warsh’s ability. It’s absolutely not just about whether there’s a rate hike this time. A rate hike that is “clear, decisive, and provides an endpoint” is more favorable to risk assets than a “pause but keeps the threat alive.” And a rate hike that “opens up infinite tightening possibilities” (raising r*, explicitly targeting inflation) is more devastating than any pause. Why the long end and short end are splitting this time won’t be elaborated further. But what’s certain is: Certainty has the greatest leverage effect on duration assets. —————————— Download the Maitong MSX APP and trade U.S. stocks with USDT. Complete tasks during the event period to claim contract trial funds step by step: Event period: September 7th—September 20th 23:59 (UTC+0) First login to the APP: 10 USDT First completion of KYC: 10 USDT New users’ first deposit of 100 USDT: 10 USDT U.S. stock spot trading of 100 USDT or contract trading of 2,000 USDT: 20 USDT Invite friends to complete all tasks: Earn up to an additional 100 USDT Registration link: http://(msx.com)/?code=h5cc95