🇺🇸 WHAT TO WATCH TODAY — U.S. MARKETS 8:15 AM ET — 🇺🇸 ADP Weekly Employment Estimate 8:30 AM ET — 🇺🇸 Empire State Manufacturing 11:30 AM ET — 🇺🇸 6-Week Treasury Auction 1:00 PM ET — 🇺🇸 20-Year Treasury Auction 4:30 PM ET — 🛢️ API Oil Inventories All Day — 🏦 FOMC Meeting — Day 1 ———————————— 🔥 20-YEAR TREASURY AUCTION — KEY EVENT The $13B 20-year reopening is today’s biggest fixed-time test. With long-term yields elevated, demand could have a significant impact across markets. Weak demand → yields ↑ → stocks pressured Strong demand → yields ↓ → stocks supported 🇺🇸 EMPIRE STATE September manufacturing data provide an early look at U.S. factory activity. A major surprise could move yields and the dollar, although attention is increasingly shifting toward the Fed. 🏦 FED — DAY 1 The FOMC begins its two-day meeting today. No major Fed speakers are scheduled. The rate decision, dot plot and Powell press conference come Wednesday. Watch the 2Y yield, 10Y yield, dollar and Fed-rate pricing. 🛢️ OIL API inventories arrive after the close, ahead of Wednesday’s official EIA report. With crude prices elevated, another large inventory draw could reinforce inflation concerns. 🌍 GLOBAL UK labor-market data and Germany’s ZEW survey are the main international releases ahead of the U.S. session.(彭博社)