An underrated tweet and an underestimated personnel shift: Iran's internal personnel changes in August were a key factor in the logic behind the belief that the U.S.-Iran standoff would be prolonged. Mojtaba has gained greater control internally, the hardliners have stronger demands for control over the strait, and they have a higher tolerance for sanctions and blockades. They are pushing harder for Trump to acknowledge Iran's de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump is unlikely to back down (as it would create immense domestic political pressure). This stalemate has led to oil prices climbing back above $100 for the first time in five months, the Houthis controlling the Mandeb Strait, and, of course, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield soaring above 5%, which is a key driving factor. Previously, when discussing the concessions Trump might make, at least the third point would need to be achieved to count as an effective TACO; otherwise, the impact would be minimal: https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2097309757992501308?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A