TraderS | 缺德道人|Sep 15, 2026 08:03
One oil price, one AI—on a small scale, it’s about Trump’s election and governance stability; on a larger scale, it’s tied to the fate of the U.S. So after Anthropic’s boss Dario led the charge over the weekend, citing reasons like cracking down on chip smuggling and remote access to data centers outside China (but really aiming to monopolize the market ahead of their IPO to maintain a high valuation), U.S. stocks tied to AI concepts took another hit.
Under pressure, Trump decisively chose to publicly call Jensen Huang to endorse him, continuing to support AI expansion together. For Jensen Huang, as long as he can sell more GPUs, it’s a win—he doesn’t care whether Chinese companies use these cards to surpass American companies.
For Trump, maintaining a booming stock market before the midterm elections is essential, especially with rate hikes looming. U.S. debt and high oil prices are already suffocating him, and if the stock market takes a hit, it’ll be a real headache for him.
So it’s not hard to understand why Trump called the idea of robots taking over the world a hoax—he’s working hard to downplay Dario’s claims that rapid AI development poses a threat to humanity.
The interests of the AI “Big Three” aren’t aligned either. Musk’s xAI is already bundled into SpaceX’s IPO, so he’s under the least pressure. While he verbally agrees with Dario about slowing down AI development, he’s simultaneously teasing Grok 4.7 and even 4.8.
Right now, it’s more like an oligopoly competition. The giants not only have to fight internally for limited liquidity through IPOs and corporate bonds, but also compete with U.S. debt, gold, and crude oil in the dollar liquidity market.
Especially against the backdrop of rate hikes, the upcoming IPOs of the two major players could create significant liquidity drain—particularly when OpenAI goes public in 2027, which might coincide with U.S. debt ceiling pressures.
In short, if oil prices don’t drop, U.S. stocks and bonds could blow up at any time. It’s time to adopt a defensive strategy.
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