Pre Market Thoughts - 15 Sep 26 One of the worst SMH vs IGV performance since July. The 3m momentum basket has shifted out of Semis and into Software already, with the 6m starting to see the shift as well. Yields have also broken out with the 10Y trading above 5% at this point. As per yesterday, my game plan was to bid any dips on semis before FOMC. I think this current spot in SMH/SOXX/SOXL/MU/SNDK/00660/SKHY are fantastic risk reward zones. Also i have added some US long dated treasury call spreads with insane multipliers playing for a reversal in yields. Yesterday we had an early sell off from US into Asia on semis. This somewhat stabilized during the NY session. The knee jerk reaction on semis was to sell it on any bad news. This reminds me of the spot that IGV and the software stocks were in during the April-May period where they got absolutely trounced. The main reason why i am bidding this is because i think that news was misinterpreted by the market. Pacing the frontier does not mean less compute is needed, it just redirects where the compute spend is going towards. Also working on alignment and safety...requires compute. This is similar to the period where cybersecurity stocks were equally trounced down together with IGV back in the April period. Next up, the catalyst in my mind is Trump calling Jenson. This was obviously staged. But the thought of the president pushing for the AI DC build out? I dont think this has been truly baked into the market. IMO, if we look back a few months from now, people might see this as the start of the semis revival. For context, we are 50% above the lows in SNDK and NBIS and 30% above the lows in MU. On crypto, Polymarket is pricing Clarity's passage at about 20%. The majors have reversed their prior price gains. A few alts are also looking extremely tired. On balance, i continue to remain cautious in general.. that AI token that i wanted to buy more of? yes. it's still higher. On RH chain, we have the STANDARD released. This is "like an ohm fork" but probably will have more mechanics. I think this requires some amount of IQ to PvP into. If you didnt get the WL, its probably best to sit aside UNLESS you know what you are doing. IMO, this also sucks out some amount of degen capital from the trenches. https://terminal.gambit.zone/onchainflow -> you can use this to see what top KOLs are doing. Good luck!