DC大于C|Sep 15, 2026 06:02
Let’s talk about Bitcoin again.
Honestly, the topic we can’t avoid is still oil prices.
Big B [Bitcoin] has been hovering in the $77-$80 range for a while now. Especially last night, when the U.S. stock market opened with a drop in the index, Big B actually bounced back a bit.
But the interest rate meeting early the day after tomorrow will determine the direction, and it still depends on oil prices. Trump is still doing his usual “self-talk” about oil prices.
We know Trump will TACO. He’s just waiting for the right moment. Let’s see if there’s any compromise after the interest rate meeting.
If there’s a rate hike in September and oil prices remain high, the market expects another hike in October? The U.S. stock market definitely won’t be able to avoid it. Can Big B still have an independent trend? Probably not.
If there’s no rate hike in September and oil prices stay high, Walsh will continue to be hawkish. That doesn’t mean there won’t be a hike in Q4, so the market will still have risks hanging over its head.
Unless, regardless of whether there’s a rate hike or not in September (rate hikes are pretty much priced in already), once the hike is finalized, the market might drop immediately. Then Trump will TACO, oil prices will go down, and the U.S. stock market and Big B might get a boost.
So, it’s still about oil prices. I’m still holding onto my short positions, but the fees are frustrating. Some friends have advised me to pull out, and honestly, I’d love to.
I really regret not playing the swings back in early August. But hindsight is always 20/20.
Anyway, with oil prices nearing $100 now, WTI—I don’t believe it can stay at this level for long.
Some friends are saying it could hit $120, $150, or even $200. Honestly, that’s kind of nonsense.
Even if it stays above $100 for a long time, anything over a week would be unbearable for many countries.
And you can look at the trend since the Russia-Ukraine conflict. WTI’s peak was still around $120-$130, and it quickly dropped after that.
Even this year, since the U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions, the total time WTI has been above $100 doesn’t add up to more than 20 days—definitely not even a full month.
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