TraderS | 缺德道人|Sep 14, 2026 12:56
The fundamentals haven't really changed much compared to half a day or a day ago, but the news hype is still brewing. It's back to the classic chicken-or-egg dilemma—what came first?
Needing a few weeks to repair pipelines isn't exactly the most pessimistic expectation, but the real issue is, if you can break it today, what's stopping it from being broken again tomorrow after it's fixed?
Without resolving the regional security landscape and properly addressing the Iran issue, there's no foundation for long-term peace and stability. Right now, it's just a matter of whether Trump is willing to trade off some interests for short-term peace.
But no matter what, with the midterm elections around the corner, he can't afford to alienate his base under the pressure of the elections. Since he can't win over swing voters, backing down on Iran and losing his base would be game over.
So when he says everything will be fine and oil prices will drop after the midterms, what he's really implying is that he'll compromise after the elections. After all, by then, the feelings of his base won't matter as much.
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