The situation in the Middle East has entered a new stage in the past four days: 1) On the 11th, the Houthi armed forces captured the strategic location of the Red Sea and the port city of Muhah, occupying approximately 5400 square kilometers of land in western Yemen. On the same day, the Yemeni government announced that the Houthis have taken control of the entire western coast of the country and are continuing to advance southward; 2) Saudi Arabia has temporarily closed its east-west oil pipeline after being attacked by drones. This 1200 kilometer pipeline can transport up to about 5 million barrels per day, equivalent to about 5% of global supply. Especially important is that after the blockage in Hormuz, it is an important alternative route for Saudi Arabia to deliver crude oil from the east to the Red Sea and bypass Hormuz. Previously, the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, but now the backup channel is also unsafe; 3) On the 13th, Omani Foreign Minister Badr posted on social media that the regional meeting scheduled for the 14th in the southern Omani city of Salalah has been postponed in order to seek consensus. On the 12th, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagai stated that Iran and Oman are expected to inform Gulf countries of the results of their consultations on the navigation issue in the Strait of Hormuz at the relevant regional meeting on the 14th. The market had high expectations for this before and is now disappointed in the short term; 4) Yesterday, it was reported that an Iranian oil tanker was attacked again. In the early morning of the 14th, several loud explosions were heard in the Silik area of Hormuzgan Province, Iran; 5) Trump reiterated during his visit to Ireland on the 13th that the war in Iran will end after the mid-term elections, when "gasoline prices will fall rapidly". He also stated that Iran is "very eager to reach an agreement" and has been in contact with the United States. Trump said earlier on the 9th that he believed that the war between the United States and Iran would "end immediately" after the completion of the mid-term congressional elections in November. How do you view these pieces of information together? 1. In the short term, the situation is actually escalating. Iran and the Houthi armed forces have effectively controlled the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Mandeb, further hindering the transportation of oil from the Middle East. It is not surprising that the opening oil this morning returned to 107; 2. If the meeting between Gulf countries and Iran in Oman takes place and reaches a certain consensus, it will be a significant moment that cannot be ignored. Reflecting the further loosening of the rules and order of the original American Gulf order: Gulf countries cannot tolerate the disaster caused by the obstruction of shipping in the strait - whether it is the endless conflicts in the Persian Gulf or the disregard for the Houthis' sweeping of the Mandeb Strait, and have to seek communication and even compromise with Iran separately from the US government. It also represents the opening of a new path of reconciliation - regional countries may unilaterally reach a consensus with Iran, and then cooperate with Iran to force Washington to accept reality, ultimately forming a new peace situation; 3. Trump repeatedly stressed that after the election, he had several intentions: 1) First, he was fighting for the initiative of "who is more anxious", and also wanted Iran not to think that the US election date would automatically become Iran's bargaining advantage; 2) The more we need to end the war before the election, the less we can publicly demonstrate that we must end the war before the election; 3) Of course, it is also a precautionary measure to establish an explanation in advance for the inability to lower oil prices before the election. 4. As we have been discussing before, the United States and Iran are now entering a stalemate where they cannot afford to bet on each other, and the progress of the Houthis has further expanded Iran's card advantage. So the force to break the deadlock now is more likely to come from regional countries, neighboring countries, allies, and China jointly exerting pressure, rather than either the US or Iran backing down first. It could be Gulf countries, Pakistan, or even China pushing for mediation. However, this takes time. As Iran said before, even if it has reached a new channel agreement with Amanda, it does not mean the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, provided that the United States first complies with the terms of the previous Islamabad Armistice Memorandum, which is also a difficult point for Trump today. Is the scenario predicted in the tweet on September 10th true will be realized Finally, as mentioned in the tweet on the 12th, the core issue is oil prices. If oil prices can fall, the market also believes that the strong stance of Walsh's interest rate hike this week will only increase once; If oil prices remain high, even if Walsh dovish raises interest rates, the market may still be playing with the possibility of multiple future interest rate hikes. https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2098580037608116399? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'