[The probability of a Fed rate hike this week is 86.2%] According to CME 'FedWatch': The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged by September is 13.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 86.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged by October is 6.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 50.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 42.9%.