Murphy
Murphy|Sep 13, 2026 08:04
From the two charts below, we can get a pretty clear understanding of the trading mindset of representative investors at different stages. Chart 1: BTC realized profits over 3-6 months are very minimal. In other words, the group of people who bought at the bottom during the 3-6 month period mostly aren’t willing to take profits at the current price level. Why focus on this group? Because they are the closest to LTH (Long-Term Holders) among STH (Short-Term Holders). Those who aren’t selling now are most likely aiming for mid-to-long-term holding. Chart 2: BTC realized losses over 6-12 months are very significant. This period essentially covers the entire bear market’s supply. Among them, quite a few LTH aren’t true believers. They’ve simply become long-term holders passively due to unrealized losses. So, during every major drop or rebound, they are the most unstable group. From a macro perspective, BTC can only fully enter the next stage once this type of selling pressure is gradually released. By combining the LTH supply peak mentioned in the referenced chart, we can understand where the current market pressure is coming from (see reference below). That’s why I said, 'Once we cross this mountain, it’ll be smooth sailing ahead.'
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