Next Week's Macro Outlook: Major Central Banks from the US, Japan, and UK Set to Take the Stage, Fed Rate Hike Probability Nears 90% In a week of trading marked by oil prices returning to $100 and inflation expectations rising again, the Fed's rate hike pricing, Middle East supply risks, and long-term interest rates have become the three main drivers of global assets. This week, the US released its August PPI and CPI data. PPI rose 5.4% year-over-year, exceeding the market expectation of 5.3%. CPI remained steady at 3.4% year-over-year, matching expectations, but core CPI increased by 0.3% month-over-month, higher than the expected 0.2%. Following the data release, the interest rate swap market's pricing for a Fed rate hike next week surged to about 90%, up from 69% before the data was published. The market has even fully priced in two rate hikes by the end of the year. However, after Friday's CPI release, all three major indices closed up around 1%, ending a four-day losing streak. Here are the key events the market will focus on in the coming week (all times in Beijing Time): Tuesday 20:30 - US September NY Fed Manufacturing Index, US August Import Price Index MoM, Canada July Wholesale Sales MoM. Wednesday 17:00 - Eurozone July Industrial Production MoM. Wednesday 20:30 - US August Retail Sales MoM, US August Core Retail Sales MoM. Wednesday 22:00 - US July Business Inventories MoM, US September NAHB Housing Market Index. Thursday 02:00 - Fed FOMC announces rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections. Thursday 02:30 - Fed Chair Walsh holds a monetary policy press conference. Thursday 17:00 - Eurozone August Final CPI YoY, Eurozone August Final Core CPI YoY. Thursday 19:00 - Bank of England announces rate decision. Thursday 20:30 - US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 12, US August Housing Starts Annualized, US August Building Permits, US September Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Friday 11:00 - Bank of Japan announces rate decision. Friday 16:00 - Eurozone July Seasonally Adjusted Current Account. Friday 21:15 - US August Industrial Production MoM. Friday 21:15 - US August Conference Board Leading Index MoM.