小龙先生|Sep 12, 2026 18:36
Wall Street is shifting gears, and a September rate hike has become the consensus.
I predict the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September!
CPI is out: monthly rate exceeded expectations, while the annual rate declined.
Core monthly rate at 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%, marking the highest since May this year. Core annual rate at 2.4%, down for three consecutive months, hitting the lowest since April 2021.
The monthly rate exceeding expectations indicates inflationary pressure remains on a month-to-month basis, while the annual rate decline suggests long-term trends are improving. This mix of "short-term overheating, long-term cooling" puts the Fed in a tough spot.
Market bets on a September Fed rate hike have risen to the 60%-70% range. The current FOMC voting lineup stands at 6 votes for holding steady and 5 votes for a hike—not an overwhelming majority.
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