同花顺|Sep 11, 2026 18:12
[Mitsubishi UFJ Expects Fed to Raise Rates by 25 Basis Points in September, Hold Steady in October]
Mitsubishi UFJ has abandoned its forecast that the Federal Reserve would keep rates unchanged this year, now expecting a 25 basis point hike in September. The bank's strategists, George Goncalves and Agron Nicaj, cited reasons for the adjustment, including Fed Chair Powell's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, robust August employment data, and a higher-than-expected CPI released on Friday.
The strategists wrote that the rate hike could potentially be a 'policy mistake,' but with the market already anticipating a Fed rate hike next week, it would be difficult for the Fed to hold steady. They stated: 'Given Powell's repeated emphasis that "inflation is one of the options," doing nothing would create issues.'
Mitsubishi UFJ expects that after a rate hike in September, the Fed will hold rates steady in October, as they believe officials are unlikely to signal aggressive tightening ahead of the midterm elections. The strategists estimate a 55%-60% probability of another rate hike in December.
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