The real trouble with CPI: US inflation is falling, but oil prices are pushing it back up In August, housing inflation in the United States dropped from 3.2% to 3%, and food inflation dropped from 3% to 2.7%, indicating that internal inflation has not completely spiraled out of control. But energy inflation has risen from 14.7% to 16.3%. The contradiction in this data also lies here: the inflation pressure in the United States is easing, while external energy shocks are pushing overall inflation back up. The Federal Reserve usually does not rashly raise interest rates due to short-term increases in oil prices, but once high oil prices are transmitted to transportation, commodities, and inflation expectations, coupled with strong employment and previously hot PPI, the Federal Reserve must consider whether not raising interest rates will once again lose its inflation credit. At present, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike in September given by Polymarket is about 80%, and the pricing of CME futures is also around 70%. The market is no longer trading whether the economy is strong or not, but whether the Federal Reserve still dares to tolerate inflation. For Bitcoin: native, greater pressure in the coming week may arise before the interest rate hike is implemented, as high US bond yields, a strong US dollar, and the withdrawal of leveraged funds will all suppress the rebound height. My judgment is to first prevent probing and then focus on repairing. $75000 to $76000 is the first line of defense, holding on is the only chance to draw back $78000 to $80000. If the interest rate hike is implemented but the wording is dovish, BTC may go beyond selling expectations and buying reality; If the Federal Reserve continues to hawk, after losing $75000, $72400 or even $70000 will have to be reintroduced into the plan. Don't rush to shout positive news just because housing and food inflation have decreased. How data changes is one thing, whether it can change the Federal Reserve's decisions is what the market truly cares about.