[Probability of a 25 Basis Point Rate Hike by the Fed This Month at 69.4% Ahead of Tonight's CPI Data Release] BlockBeats News, September 11: The U.S. August CPI data will be released in about an hour, potentially determining whether the Federal Reserve will initiate its first rate hike in over three years. According to CME's 'FedWatch' data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged this month is 30.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 69.4%. The next Federal Reserve rate decision will take place on September 16 (2:00 AM Beijing time on September 17). The U.S. Department of Labor will release the August CPI data tonight at 8:30 PM Beijing time. The market expects overall CPI to rise 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, while core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year. This data will serve as a critical reference for whether the Federal Reserve will proceed with its first rate hike in over three years next week. The Federal Reserve last raised rates on July 26, 2023, with a 25 basis point hike, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 5.25%–5.50%. The market is particularly focused on the month-on-month core CPI data. Analysts believe that if core CPI rises by 0.2%, it could provide room to maintain rates unchanged; if it rises by 0.4%, it could significantly push policy toward a rate hike. If the data comes in at 0.3%, traders may further scrutinize unrounded figures and subcategories such as housing, services, and core goods.