"Today, pretty much all markets are in a bearish state— Oil prices: Driven by escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions and heightened risks in Red Sea shipping routes, international oil prices have surged significantly, breaking the $100 mark. Treasury yields: Due to the oil price shock, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has soared to 4.954%, while the 30-year yield has climbed to 5.368%. Interest rates: FedWatch data shows that the probability of a rate hike in September has already reached 72.5%. Which makes tonight's 8:30 CPI data especially crucial! If core inflation exceeds expectations, it could become the final key factor driving the Fed's first rate hike in 3 years. In a more extreme scenario, if inflation continues to worsen, the market's focus might shift from debating whether to hike rates in September → to whether to start consecutive rate hikes. The keyword for this month: risk aversion? The only good news is that we might get a chance to enter at a cheaper price…