☀️ Today's Important Financial News and Xiaolong's Perspective 1. Crude oil continues to soar, Brent surpasses $109 ❗ ️ The situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate, with an increase in attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil closed up 6.3% at $107.63 per barrel; WTI closed up 6.7% at $102.48 per barrel, both breaking through the $100 mark and reaching their highest levels in nearly four months. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production plummeted to its lowest level since 1990 in August. 2. US PPI exceeds expectations, probability of interest rate hike soars to 70% The US PPI rose 5.4% year-on-year in August, higher than the expected 5.3%. After the data was released, the market's bet on the Fed raising interest rates in September rose to over 70%, and fully priced another rate hike by October at the latest. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a rate hike has increased from 61% to over 71%. 3. US Treasury yields soar across the board, approaching 5% for 10-year maturities The US Treasury Department repurchased US $5.2 billion of treasury bond, which was below the US $6 billion ceiling and failed to appease the bond market. The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen to over 4.96%, reaching a new high in nearly three years; The 30-year period has reached over 5.36%, setting a new high in 19 years; The 2-year period has risen to over 4.58%. 4. The European Central Bank raises interest rates by 25 basis points The European Central Bank has raised all three key interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the second rate hike this year. The deposit mechanism interest rate has risen to 2.50%. President Lagarde stated that the ongoing Middle East conflict has brought inflationary pressures, and the inflation rate in the eurozone will be significantly higher than the 2% target for a long time. 5. The US stock market has fallen for four consecutive days The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% to 52064 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.58%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.65%, recording its fourth consecutive day of decline. Storage chip stocks generally fell, with SK Hynix falling more than 5%, Micron falling nearly 5%, and Intel falling more than 5%. Apple rose more than 3% against the trend. 6. Tonight's CPI is the core variable The US August CPI will be released tonight (September 11th) at 20:30 Beijing time. Market expectation: Overall CPI+0.4% month on month and+3.4% year-on-year; The core CPI increased by 0.2% month on month and 2.4% year-on-year. This is the last important inflation report before the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 interest rate meeting. Xiaolong's three-dimensional integrated perspective On the quantitative level: Prior to the release of CPI, the market experienced a contraction and fluctuation, with the direction unclear. On chain level: ETF inflow momentum has been interrupted, and short-term buying momentum has weakened. On a spatial level: oil prices exceeding 100%+PI exceeding expectations+soaring US Treasury bonds=rising inflation expectations=increased probability of interest rate hikes. If tonight's core CPI is ≥ 0.3%, BTC may directly test the 75K-76K range. Core judgment: The long position of the large structure has not been broken, and there is short-term pressure. Tonight's CPI is the real variable that determines the direction of the short-term trend.