Will
Will|Sep 10, 2026 16:54
Some thoughts heading into CPI tomorrow: Had been waiting for inflation prints all week that we finally got 1 of this morning (PPI), which was at/slightly above expectations largely bc of energy, with crude pushing >$100 not helping. BTC is back at daily range lows after two failed range high breaks. Finally retesting a daily EMA for first time since rally began, which is a welcomed reset. Altcoin/on-chain froth seems to have also generally cooled, shown by funding rates on large caps & fees on Robinhood have cooled off as a proxy for on-chain trading froth. However, 10k BTC of perp OI has been added last 12hrs on pos funding (looks like lvg longs buying the dip), not great short-term esp if CPI tomorrow is hot, worth being aware of for traders, but not a *huge* build-up. Lot weighs on tomorrow's print wrt mkt expectations for a hike at FOMC next week. If we get a deeper pullback on hot CPI, would like it to be quick, otherwise starts to put momentum into question and sense of urgency for any potential new buyers - this could cause a longer chop/re-accumulation period. Plan personally is still to hold my btc spot buys through volatility given my buffer and medium-long term views, don't see (at least at the moment) what would take us back below 60's in a worst case scenario. Ideal scenario here is that we've just come back to range lows on btc & reset froth across long tail, and then don't get a hike allowing us to push higher with less positioning, but we'll see how things play out.(Will)
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