星球日报|Sep 10, 2026 12:50
[Wall Street Bets on a Divided U.S. Congress as the Best Market Scenario, Midterm Election Season Nears Its End]
Odaily Planet Daily News: The U.S. midterm election season has entered its final stage, and Wall Street is busy strategizing for a range of scenarios. Interestingly, the outcome most favorable to the market also appears to be the most likely. Investors are increasingly confident that Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives in November, while believing that Republicans will hold a slight advantage in the Senate. To many market observers, this combination is the most ideal and carries the least risk of disruptive policy changes.
Although confidence in this outcome is not unfounded, it is far from guaranteed. Prediction markets currently favor Democrats winning control of the House. However, the Senate race has become more competitive, with Republicans slightly ahead on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Futures markets tied to the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index indicate rising demand for hedging against potential volatility in the S&P 500 index in early November. Evercore ISI recommends traders prepare for potential market fluctuations by employing so-called straddle options strategies on the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. (WSJ)
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