On the eve of CPI, several unfavorable signals came from the market, raise vigilance ❗ ️ Brothers and sisters, CP data will be released tomorrow night, but the market has already given three adverse signals, which requires us to be more alert to the subsequent sharp drop in Bitcoin prices. 1. Crude oil has surpassed $100 and may continue to rise Brent crude oil broke through $100 per barrel and briefly touched $101.76. The escalation of the situation in the Middle East is a direct driving force. The soaring oil prices indicate that inflationary pressures may resurface, which does not bode well for tomorrow's CPI data. 2. US bond yields soar, market rescue fails 美国 The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 4.86%, while the 30-year bond hit a multi-year high of 5.30%. The Ministry of Finance announced a US $6 billion treasury bond bond repurchase plan, which was not as large as expected, not only failed to calm the bond market, but instead triggered a new round of selling. The bond market is pricing higher and longer interest rates. 3. The US stock market has been falling for three consecutive days and rising for so many days, it's time for a correction The three major stock indexes fell for the third consecutive day, with high oil prices and high interest rates exerting dual pressure. But AI and semiconductors have strengthened against the trend, with Meta rising nearly 7% due to the AI intelligent agent Muse, and SK Hynix hitting a new high on the US market. Funds are hedging, but they haven't completely exited and are still gathering in AI. 4. My judgment Quantity and energy: Long positions decrease, short positions increase, and CPI contracts before volume fluctuations. On chain: ETF inflow interrupted, net outflow for two consecutive days, and buying momentum weakened. Space: Shake around 78000, strong resistance above 80000-82000, support below 75233. Core Logic: Oil prices exceed 100+US bonds soar=inflation expectations rise=CPI may be higher tomorrow night=probability of interest rate hike increases. These three signals are combined, and if the core CPI is ≥ 0.3% month on month tomorrow night, BTC may directly test 75000 to 76000. Operation suggestion: No new positions will be opened before the release of CPI tomorrow, and we will wait for the market to digest within one hour after the announcement. Let the data produce the results first, and let the K-line confirm its direction before deciding whether to start bottom fishing. I have drawn and analyzed the subsequent price trend of Bitcoin and the price prediction for the next one or two weeks for everyone. For details, please refer to last week's market weekly report and analysis