2026 Xiong Niu Excessive Series 2- Recovered Hematopoietic Ability The profit proportion of short-term chips (STH-PSIP) is a data worth discussing in detail. It can be said that it is a barometer of market sentiment, and we need to be able to understand it. In yesterday's tweet, I simply mentioned that the current STH-PSIP has reached 96%, which means almost all new funds have made money. We all know that in order for a market to prosper, it must have money. The only condition for attracting a continuous flow of funds in the future is to have a 'money making effect'. A market without 'profitability' is a stagnant pool, devoid of vitality. So, when STH-PSIP exceeds 90%, it indicates that the market's profitability has begun to recover. On the other hand, even if there is a rebound during a bear market, STH-PSIP cannot exceed 90%. Due to excessive short-term profit taking, in a lack of confidence environment, it will only trigger more profit taking. So, when STH-PSIP is 96%, it tells us that the market is changing and becoming acceptable for new investors to make money without worrying about selling pressure. This is vitality, the ability to generate blood. Of course, it also reminds that "short-term profit taking" is too concentrated and, according to common sense, cannot be sustained for a long time. Especially during the transition period from bear tail to bull beginning (as shown in the red shaded area in the picture), it is common to see STH-PSIP drop back below 5% after exceeding 90%. Rome was not built in a day, and emotions are no exception. After a long bear market, investors still have doubts in their hearts. This is also the reason why fluctuations are prone to occur during the 'transition period'. But as BTC's volatility converges over the long term, we see that 2023 will be much lighter than 2019. Besides' following common sense ', can it also be' not following common sense '? Of course! For example, a sustained fast-paced pull can keep PSIP above 90%. Although there are more and more profit opportunities, the market selling pressure is actually smaller because with consistent expectations, no one wants to sell. This enters a comprehensive bull market (as shown in the blue shaded area in the picture). In the "main wave" stage, STH-PSIP can only return to around 50%, after all, the market has already started to FOMO. So, I say it's a barometer of emotions. What is the current 'emotion'? You don't need to guess, just read the data. So, are we currently in the "common sense range" or "not following common sense" stage? I personally think it's the former, and the comprehensive conditions for directly following the main trend are not yet met. Given this, we have come to yesterday's conclusion: perhaps the opportunity we have to wait for is not far away, and STH-PSIP cannot be maintained above 90% for a long time. Looking back at past cycles, this is not a boat carving, it's logic! So during the transition period, should we wait for STH-PSIP to return to 50% before taking action, or should we wait until it drops below 5% before taking action? This question is subjective. But I want to say that when the overall trend is upward, the price corresponding to the next 5% may not necessarily be lower than the previous 50%, because the overall turnover cost in the market is increasing. If you don't understand or haven't figured out the reasoning behind it, I suggest asking Grok. Considering the length, I won't elaborate further. In other words, when you see that the STH-PSIP drawdown is lower but the BTC price is not lower, you realize soberly that the market has changed! ----------------------------------- I'm terribly sorry! Accidentally wrote another lengthy article. But I think it's worth it because I explained my thinking and understanding process clearly. If you have the patience to see this, it means that you are an investor who pursues cognition and logic, not just limited to "looking long and short". We are the same type of people, I hope you also think it's worth it!