星球日报|Sep 10, 2026 03:46
[Probability of Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026, drops to 6% on Polymarket, down 51% in a single week]
PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that the probability of Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026, on Polymarket has dropped to 6%, down 51% in a single week. The probability of IPO by October 31, 2026, has fallen to 60%, down 29% in a single week. According to settlement rules, if Anthropic officially lists on a public securities exchange and opens stock trading by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the specified date, the market will settle as Yes; otherwise, it will settle as No. Additionally, if Anthropic is acquired by a publicly listed company, the market will immediately settle as No. The primary basis for settlement in this market is official documents and announcements released by Anthropic and the stock exchange where its shares are listed.
Previously, Reuters cited sources reporting that Anthropic plans to launch its IPO roadshow as early as mid-October and aims to go public before the U.S. midterm elections in November. Meanwhile, David Sacks, Chairman of the U.S. President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, called today for a pause on Anthropic's IPO until investigations into claims made by a whistleblower are completed. The "whistleblower" refers to former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon, who resigned over concerns about AI safety risks and publicly accused Anthropic and OpenAI of racing to develop self-improving superintelligence without adequate safety measures.
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