金色财经|9月 10, 2026 02:21
**["Fed's Mouthpiece": A Slight Change in Friday's CPI Could Determine the Fed's Next Move]**
According to a report by Jinse Finance, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release at 8:30 PM Beijing time on Friday, could directly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week.
Nick Timiraos, the "Fed's mouthpiece" and chief economics correspondent for *The Wall Street Journal*, wrote in his latest article that throughout the summer, Federal Reserve officials have been debating whether current interest rates are high enough to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Price data in the spring exceeded expectations, but it cooled in June and July. The August data released on Friday will further test whether this improvement marks a trend reversal or just another brief respite after five consecutive years of inflation exceeding the target.
Economists expect core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, to rise 0.2% month-over-month in August. The difference between "enough to justify continued patience" and "forcing the Fed to raise rates" could be as little as 0.1 percentage points.
At its July meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, but three officials voted in favor of a rate hike. Since then, several officials have indicated that if inflation does not continue to improve, they may join the rate hike camp.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh, in his speech at last month's Jackson Hole symposium, leaned noticeably toward the pro-rate-hike camp. He stated that there is little evidence that borrowing conditions are restraining the economy and that the improved inflation data over the summer is not enough to convince him that the underlying trend is improving.
Walsh did not specify what kind of data would satisfy him.
Former senior Federal Reserve economist Vincent Reinhart commented that this essentially turns the market into a test for the new chair: investors have already priced in a rate hike scenario that Walsh has never explicitly promised. Moving forward, he will either have to deliver on this expectation or explain why he won't.
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