律动BlockBeats|Sep 09, 2026 03:18
[Certain Trader Anticipates Midterm Election Pressure to Cool Down U.S.-Iran Tensions, Shorts Crude Oil and Adds to Predictive Positions]
BlockBeats News, September 9, according to TradingBeats monitoring, smart money Valen9, while continuing to hold predictive positions related to the Democratic Party winning Congress, added approximately $123,500 in WTI crude oil short positions yesterday. Additionally, between 00:06 and 01:57 today, Valen9 spent approximately $2,719 to purchase 19,400 shares of 'U.S. to announce the end of Iran blockade before the end of September' Yes contracts. As of press time, Valen9's relevant positions include:
- WTI crude oil short positions: 3,723.468 shares, nominal size approximately $347,600, average entry price $91.082, unrealized loss approximately $8,490;
- End of Iran blockade by end of September Yes: holding 88,100 shares, average cost corresponding to an implied probability of 30.44%, current probability down to 13.5%, position value approximately $11,900, unrealized loss approximately $14,900;
- Democratic Party controlling both chambers Yes: holding 32,100 shares, average cost corresponding to a probability of 47.73%, currently at 51.5%, position value approximately $16,500, unrealized gain approximately $1,207;
- Republican Party controlling both chambers No: holding 2,986 shares, value approximately $2,643;
Additionally, Valen9 holds a combined total of approximately $112,800 in 'Democratic Party controlling the House' Yes and 'Republican Party controlling the House' No contracts.
Conflict-driven increases in energy and living costs may continue to erode Republican election prospects. The greater the election pressure, the stronger the political motivation for the White House to cool down tensions and lower energy prices before November. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on August 25 showed that on the issue of living costs, voters favored the Democratic Party 36% to 28%. Additionally, the Democratic Party also held an advantage in handling U.S.-Iran war-related matters. Reuters reported on September 2 that some senior aides to Trump are pushing to avoid further escalation of the Iran conflict before the midterm elections to reduce its impact on Republican election prospects. However, this strategy is being tested by ongoing clashes.
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