Today, the situation in the Middle East has escalated again, with oil prices rising above $98. This time, not only the United States and Iran, but also Saudi Arabia and Husei, who directly attacked the energy production facilities in Saudi Arabia, also talked about the two mutually reinforcing cycles between the United States and Iran last weekend. The situation has escalated. Many people are looking forward to Trump TACO. To answer a question, what has been the core of the US Iran game since July and August? It was mentioned in early July and two years after the outbreak of the war that the core issue was the control of the Strait of Hormuz. Now Trump's unilateral TACO can start cooling, but it is difficult to complete reconciliation unilaterally, let alone ensure the resumption of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz. After a long time, the United States wanted to secretly escort, but Iran discovered that they had started attacking oil tankers, and the conflict escalated again. In August, the United States was secretly escorting Iran while also launching large-scale sanctions, hoping to make concessions through economic pressure. The livelihood issues in Iran may already be significant, but under this theocratic system, the people have no say or control over the use of force, and the regime may be able to endure much longer than expected. The United States is different. With inflation, public opinion is boiling, and Trump has to consider the support rate and votes. The biggest problem for Trump is that time is not on his side Therefore, the current US Iraq game situation is no longer just a unilateral cooling down of Trump (before killing Iran). If you want to solve it faster, Trump may have to make more concessions. From a personal perspective, Trump can make the following concessions: 1) Verbal easing and announcement of victory, but policies remain largely unchanged; 2) Stop proactive strikes, but maintain maritime blockade and comprehensive economic pressure; 3) Military cooling, while making executable adjustments to blockades, oil transportation, and related financial restrictions; 4) Accept some temporary Iran Oman coordination arrangement, and negotiate permanent rights disputes separately; It is estimated that Trump has to do at least the third or fourth point above to be an effective TACO. Otherwise, only achieving the first and second points to reduce market concerns in the short term will not solve the problem at all. Iran will continue to attack oil tankers from time to time, after all, this is his "card", which needs to be played from time to time to have power. The core of Iran's demands is to accept Iran's continued role in the resumption of navigation arrangements and to retain its influence in the strait, which has become an important goal that Iran has publicly emphasized. Of course, this is also the most difficult point for Trump: 1) Accepting that the Strait of Hormuz cannot return to its pre war state and acknowledging Iran's de facto control over the strait will face significant political challenges domestically; 2) Continuing to make Iran back down through comprehensive blockade and sanctions is estimated to take a long time. The most important long-term trend in the US Iran game discussed in mid August is the personnel adjustment and arrangement within Iran in August https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2089538610047639947? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A