"What's the most likely scenario for this Friday's CPI data? What's our strategy? Hey fam, this Friday's CPI data is super critical—it'll determine whether the Fed raises rates or keeps them steady, and it'll also decide whether BTC pulls back or breaks upward! Based on various macro fundamentals, my prediction for the CPI is: overall CPI won't budge, core CPI will cool slightly, and rate hike expectations will remain uncertain. Currently, the market expects overall CPI YoY at 3.4% (unchanged), core CPI YoY to drop from 2.5% to 2.4%, and core MoM at 0.2%. But here's the thing—Wall Street is clearly divided on this data: Bank of America and Barclays have a forecast gap of just 0.036 percentage points, yet one points to "rate hike" while the other suggests "no change." Right now, two key factors are driving inflation: 1️⃣ Oil prices. The Iran-Israel conflict is escalating, and Brent crude has already hit above $97. The expected 0.4% MoM increase in overall CPI is mainly driven by energy. 2️⃣ Structural inflation pressures. PCE (the Fed's preferred metric) and CPI are telling completely different stories lately: core CPI is trending down, but core PCE might still be climbing. Waller has made it clear—the Fed focuses on PCE, especially "super-core PCE," which is now at 3.9%. Inflation in healthcare, insurance, and services is still creeping up. Actually, Waller's crucial vote is the real game-changer here. Right now, the probability of a September rate hike is just over 60%. Waller has stated plainly: the core CPI MoM data will determine his vote. If it's rounded to 0.2%, he'll likely support holding rates steady; if it's 0.3%, a rate hike is almost certain. Based on the three possible outcomes, here's our strategy: Core CPI MoM at 0.2% (most likely scenario): Rate hike probability stays around 60%, BTC pulls back to $75K-$76K—start buying in batches or go long. Core CPI MoM above 0.3%: September rate hike is basically confirmed, BTC will likely drop to $73K or even $71K for support—short BTC first, then buy the dip or go long near $73K or $71K. Core CPI MoM below 0.1%: Rate hike expectations vanish, BTC might directly rebound and break above $82K—go long on the right side, wait for BTC to stabilize above $83K on the 4-hour chart before entering long positions. Before Friday's CPI data release, I think Bitcoin's price will likely fluctuate within a narrow range—no big spikes or drops!"