We believe the AI debt boom is now driving Treasury yields higher. Combined bond issuance from Big Tech firms, including their Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs), is expected to surge to a record $320 billion this year. This would mark a +$120 billion YoY increase, or +60%. As a % of Treasury bond issuance, this is estimated to rise to a record ~70%. This would be more than double the 30% recorded in 2025 and nearly 9x larger than 2024 levels. In other words, Big Tech is now emerging as a serious competitor to the US government in the long-term debt market, increasingly competing for the same pool of buyers just as investors are demanding more compensation to hold this debt. Big Tech debt is increasingly competing with US Treasuries for investor capital.(The Kobeissi Letter)