《Daily Market Watch｜US-Iran Tensions and Global Oil Price Outlook》 On September 5, Trump is reportedly fine, but he’s back with some tough talk: a potential strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities could happen soon! As soon as the news broke, oil prices didn’t crash—instead, they surged. WTI spiked nearly 10% on the weekly chart, while Brent crude jumped over 7%, both crossing the $90 mark. At the same time, hedge funds are piling into oil longs. Brent crude net longs hit a three-month high, and WTI net longs reached their highest level since June. The market is voting with its feet: as long as geopolitical tensions persist, oil prices will keep telling a story. Latest data from the Strait of Hormuz: only four commodity ships passed through the channel on Thursday, far below the daily average of about 15 ships over the past 10 days. This critical chokepoint, which handles roughly 20% of global oil shipments, is effectively tightening. Citi has raised its Q3 Brent crude forecast from $80 to $86, citing that the reopening of the strait might take longer than expected. Goldman Sachs previously estimated that if the Strait of Hormuz were to be blocked long-term, oil prices could soar into triple digits. Also, there’s another signal behind this week’s oil price surge: the increase in managed fund net longs is aligning with bullish technical patterns. However, rising Fed rate hike expectations mean demand-side pressure is looming. Diesel prices have hit record highs, and inflationary pressures are becoming self-reinforcing. In the short term, as long as geopolitical risks remain unresolved, oil prices are more likely to rise than fall. But the growing rate hike expectations are the biggest counterforce—if prices rise too much, the market might hit the brakes on its own. Next week, keep an eye on Fed officials’ statements and the PPI and CPI data. All three will influence the next moves in oil prices and could have a significant impact on Bitcoin prices! Fam, what are you more concerned about: oil prices themselves, or how inflation from rising oil prices might affect Bitcoin? Let’s chat in the comments!