TraderS | 缺德道人|Sep 04, 2026 13:17
According to the current script of expectation management, once again validated by the latest non-farm payroll data from the Fed:
Walsh raises the rate hike probability to 60%–70%
↓
Waller brings it back down to around 50% before the blackout period to ease one-sided crowding
↓
Strong non-farm payrolls push the probability back to around 60%
↓
Hotter-than-expected PPI and CPI push the probability to 75%–90%
↓
A 25 basis point rate hike on September 16 wouldn’t constitute a true surprise attack
This script makes complete sense logically.
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