Bitcoin has rebounded again, it feels so difficult to fall and rebound! -----Who is buying BTC and who is selling BTC? Behind the rebound of Bitcoin, four forces are acting simultaneously, but with completely different properties. The first force: the systematic fundraising of giant whales (the most solid support). A wallet holding over 100 BTC increased its holdings by approximately 60000 in August, with medium-sized whales net buying 73300 BTC in 60 days (a new high since April) and super whales increasing their holdings by 43300 BTC during the same period. The continuous hanging and accepting of institutional level funds below 77000 is not a short-term speculative behavior. ‍ The second force: retail investors are selling, while whales are buying. Small holders (<1 BTC) sold approximately 14000 BTC net, while medium-sized holders (1-100 BTC) reduced their holdings by 33000 BTC. The rebound of 77800 is a passive rebound of the giant whale catching retail investors' sales below 77000, not an active push up. The third force: ETF returns but the margin weakens. On Monday, the net inflow was 217 million (BlackRock IBIT accounted for 206 million), and on Tuesday, the net outflow was 241 million (BlackRock IBIT outflow was 201 million). ETF funds are highly concentrated in one institution, with the marked entity sending approximately 3700 BTC to the exchange in the past week, and potential selling pressure is accumulating. The fourth force: high stock on the exchange. Binance BTC reserves have risen to 687000, the highest since 2026, posing potential selling pressure. Mr. Xiaolong's core judgment: The narrow fluctuations and rebound of Bitcoin have caught the selling of retail investors, and the price has passively rebounded. The bull market has not yet been fully confirmed, and the demand for spot goods is still insufficient. Short term 77400 is a watershed, and 77000 is a key support. The confirmation of the trend requires the resonance of sustained net inflows of ETFs, a decrease in exchange stock, and continued increase in holdings of giant whales. At present, both long and short positions are relatively weak, and the price does not fall deeply, with narrow fluctuations! Let's first take a look at how Bitcoin prices will trend after Friday's non farm payroll data is released.