Next week: This cycle may not be over yet, it depends on where you get support! What is more noteworthy than the current daily retracement is that the ETF inflows, short covering, and liquidity expectations that previously drove the rise are all cooling down. My judgment: The probability of a dip followed by a repair within a week is higher, and the overall oscillation is weak. There is currently no condition to directly restart the main uptrend. Previously, Bitcoin: native surged into the $80000 pressure zone, and I do not recommend chasing after it. Now, the price has fallen by about 6% from $81500. Retesting the range of $75000 to $76000 indicates that there is indeed a significant amount of unwind and profit taking activity above. The technical aspect has also shifted from offense to repair. The daily MACD has a high dead cross and the column has turned green, indicating a significant decrease in upward momentum. However, the J value of KDJ has fallen below the zero axis, and short-term selling pressure has been released quickly. It is not cost-effective to continue chasing short positions now. Calculated from $57800 to $81500, the 38.2% retracement level is approximately $72400, and the 50% retracement level is approximately $69600. Next, let's focus on: $74000-75500: Hold on, expected to rebound above $78000 72000-73000 USD: Quick recovery still considered normal repair $69000-70000: Daily loss indicates that the strong rebound structure has been disrupted The external environment is temporarily bearish, with US bond yields rising and the Nasdaq falling, and the market re trading inflation and interest rate hike risks. ETF funds have also started to fluctuate, and institutions have not significantly withdrawn, but their willingness to chase prices at high levels is decreasing. This pullback is the first stress test after the rebound, and the most important thing for the next week is to observe ETFs, US stocks, and spot buying to see if they are willing to repurchase at $72000-75000.