[Traders Believe Fed Rate Hike Probability Surges Above 66%] Traders now believe there is over a 66% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points this month. Expectations for a rate hike surged significantly after Kevin Warsh delivered hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting last Friday. Just a week ago, market pricing indicated that the probability of a rate hike in September was less than 40%.