At the end of the day, bitcoin:native was probably not going to go as low as most people anticipated. Each bear market has become gradually shallower. I’m stating the obvious here, but it matters. You are never going to pinpoint the exact bottom. That’s precisely why I urged people numerous times to buy around the 60s, and why I was buying heavily myself. The 50K target that most of the market is still waiting for would require roughly a 40% drop from where price is now. Now, let’s involve seasonality. The 2017 bear cycle topped in December and bottomed in December. The following cycle topped in November and bottomed in November. So, naturally, because this cycle topped in October, the assumption becomes: “We must bottom in October.” Right? Well, look at the image I’ve shown. For that theory to play out, bitcoin:native would essentially need to erase this entire 40% move upwards within the next 35–40 days, break the previous lows, and establish a completely new cycle low in October. To me, that doesn’t just look unlikely, the logic fundamentally starts to break down. Especially when you consider that we just liquidated (And that is only what they show publicly) Wink Wink. That is not exactly the type of price action you expect to see if Bitcoin is simply preparing to roll over and continue a traditional bear-market decline. So the question you have to ask yourself is simple: Does it genuinely seem realistic that bitcoin:native reverses this entire move, drops ~40%, and prints a fresh cycle low within the next 35–40 days? Personally, I think that’s becoming increasingly unlikely. The characteristics of this move are starting to suggest that the bottom may very well already be in. We spent months chopping around the 62K region, repeatedly failing to break the lows despite the market continuously expecting lower prices. Eventually, you have to consider the possibility that people waiting for the perfect sweep simply got front-run. Maybe this cycle doesn’t follow the textbook seasonal bottom everyone is waiting for. Maybe the cycle has shifted. As this was my theory from 6 months ago! But hey... believe whatever you want. Whatever floats your boat. This is simply how I’m viewing the market based on the price action in front of me, regardless of how I’m positioned.(Killa)