Morgan Stanley: Viewing 2028 as a Key Observation Point for the Global Memory Market Competition Landscape

Golden Finance reported on August 29 that Morgan Stanley highlighted the rise of Chinese memory manufacturers should not be simply seen as technological catch-up or low-cost alternatives. What truly warrants attention is their production capacity, which may gradually grow large enough to alter the global memory market's supply structure. ChangXin Memory Technologies and Yangtze Memory Technologies are currently entering the mainstream product market and gradually expanding into high-profit markets such as HBM, advanced server DRAM, and enterprise-grade SSDs. Morgan Stanley views 2028 as a critical observation point for the global memory market competition landscape. Between 2026 and 2027, demand for AI servers, HBM's capacity displacement of advanced wafers, import substitution, and the time required for customer certification may absorb most of the additional supply from Chinese memory manufacturers. By 2028, as Chinese memory manufacturers expand production, the capacity released from the previous expansion efforts of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will also gradually come online. At that time, the supply variables in the global memory market will increase significantly. Morgan Stanley estimates that ChangXin's DRAM monthly production capacity will increase from 180,000 wafers in 2025 to 300,000 wafers in 2026, accounting for approximately 13% of global DRAM wafer capacity and about 11% of bit shipments. By 2028, this capacity is expected to further rise to 500,000 wafers, and by 2031, it could reach 800,000 wafers. If the expansion proceeds smoothly, ChangXin's global DRAM bit shipment market share could approach 15% by 2030, and it may even surpass Micron in production capacity around 2028, becoming the world's third-largest DRAM supplier.